Regardless of what happens any effects on the exchange rate or Brazilian stok market will be very short-lived.
The truth of the matter is that ALL of Brazil's politicians are more crooked than the proverbial corkscrew, and no matter who ends up filling the presidency this country's economy has already tanked. If God, himself, came down from heaven to run this country fixing the economic and political problems that got us to where we are now will take at least a decade or more to have any results.
There are just too many major problems to be fixed. First and most urgent is the economic crisis, putting Brazil's financial house in order and changing economic policy to prevent the gross overspending that put us in this situation.
Changing the whole political landscape of this nation, electoral laws, super-salaries for politicians, and a massive reduction in the number of politicians, all of which require changes to the Constitution. Creating a system in which NOBODY has absolute power would be a great start. A parliamentary system where the head of state and congress together make the decisions, nobody can make unilateral decisions and govern by decree as is presently the case, would be a good start. Again this would require changes to the Constitution.
Politicians must also be held criminally responsible for their wrong-doings, not protected by privileged courts as they are currently. If convicted of wrong-doing loss of their mandate and future political rights should be automatic, not subject to a secret vote by their equally crooked counterparts. Corruption is in the DNA of this country's politics at all levels from the federal on down to the municipal governments and Brazilians have let it go on for far too long for it to change quickly.
Once the Brazilian people realize all of this, and understand how futile things really are the short-term bubble will burst and things will quickly go back to being as bad as ever. And that's not to mention the other corruption scandals that haven't hit the fan yet that will make Petrobras look like small potatoes... the BNDES scandal for example.
The future doesn't look at all good and if there is a faint light at the end of the tunnel you can bet your ass that it's just the headlight on the train coming towards us.
Cheers,
James
expat.com Experts Team